And the Oscar Goes To...

By Connect Mason Reporter Matthew Todd

A Sweep for No Country and Blood

Ready for Sunday night Oscar fans? Here are my predictions on the leading categories....

BEST ACTOR

• Daniel Day-Lewis, THERE WILL BE BLOOD, Odds: 7-5

• George Clooney, MICHAEL CLAYTON, Odds: 5-2

• Viggo Mortensen, EASTERN PROMISES, Odds: 4-1

• Tommy Lee Jones, IN THE VALLEY OF ELAH, Odds: 8-1

• Johnny Depp, SWEENEY TODD, Odds: 20-1

Clooney scored a nod for his fierce and remarkable performance in ‘Clayton,’ but sadly with him and the rest of the competition, Day-Lewis is practically a brick wall hard to break through. Day-Lewis is brutal and persuasive in ‘Blood,’ a performance of the ages that can’t be missed. Mortensen garnered his first nod deservedly so, but AMPAS will consider the film too unsettling and his character too unsympathetic. Lee Jones definitely went the distance with this surprise nod, but the film tanked and I’m not many voters saw it either. And Depp will have to wait another year out for a stronger performance.

BEST ACTRESS

• Ellen Page, JUNO, Odds: 3-1

• Julie Christie, AWAY FROM HER, Odds: 7-2

• Marion Cotillard, LA VIE EN ROSE, Odds: 4-1

• Laura Linney, THE SAVAGES, Odds: 10-1

• Cate Blanchett, ELIZABETH: THE GOLDEN AGE, Odds: 25-1

This is undoubtedly a tough one to call. Christie has seemed like a front-runner for months, but Christie's uncaring and rude jokes about Alzheimer’s and her possible boycotting the Oscars really earned her some black marks. Plus the film barely registered in theatres. As with Cotillard who turned in a brilliant performance in a film no one saw. Linney’s nod was a nice surprise, but she’s far from a lock, as with Blanchett, who seems destined to fall victim to a vote split. Therefore, I call it for the lovable Page who could conceivably make history by being the youngest winner ever. Plus the film has grossed over $130 million, proving there’s across-the-board support as well as a Best Picture nod to boot.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Javier Bardem, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, Odds: 2-1

• Casey Affleck, THE ASSASSINATION OF JESSE JAMES, Odds: 3-1

• Tom Wilkinson, MICHAEL CLAYTON, Odds: 3-1

• Hal Holbrook, INTO THE WILD, Odds: 12-1

• Philip Seymour Hoffman, CHARLIE WILSON’S WAR, Odds: 15-1

Basically this category is now a process of elimination. Affleck and Wilkinson are the closest to upsetting Bardem, but I doubt voters have even seen ‘James’ or that ‘Clayton’ has any momentum or power to upset ‘No Country.’ Holbrook is easily the sentimental favorite, but since AMPAS showed no love for the film itself (not to mention Holbrook’s lack of favorable screen time), how does he even have a shot? And Hoffman should just be happy with the Best Actor Oscar (for ‘Capote’ two years ago) already standing on his mantel. Therefore, how many times do I have to say Javier Bardem’s name for you to get the picture? Congratulations.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Amy Ryan, GONE BABY GONE, Odds: 5-2

• Cate Blanchett, I’M NOT THERE, Odds: 3-1

• Tilda Swinton, MICHAEL CLAYTON, Odds: 3-1

• Ruby Dee, AMERICAN GANGSTER, Odds: 8-1

• Saoirse Ronan, ATONEMENT, Odds: 20-1

The evening’s other tough call. Golden Globe winner Blanchett seems poised to win again, but is it still too soon (after ‘The Aviator’ three years ago)? And SAG-winner Dee is the biggest hit of the bunch, but sentimentalism is hardly a complimentary reason to award somebody (not to mention her diminutive five-minutes of screen time). Swinton, on the other hand, is probably the closest to an acting victory for the film, but she doesn’t have the huge Oscar scenes as some of her competitors. And Ronan pulled off a remarkable feat for a 13-year-old as the scene-stealing young Briony Tallis. But her age does hurt a little (although 11-year-old Anna Paquin landed this honor for ‘The Piano’ 14 years ago). So in a very narrow, narrow race, give it to Ryan for her trash-mouthed Boston mother role, which has garnered more than 15 critics’ prizes to date. Though don’t discount an upset from Blanchett or Swinton.

BEST DIRECTOR

• Joel & Ethan Coen, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, Odds: 2-1

• Paul Thomas Anderson, THERE WILL BE BLOOD, Odds: 3-1

• Tony Gilroy, MICHAEL CLAYTON, Odds: 5-1

• Julian Schnabel, THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY, Odds: 8-1

• Jason Reitman, JUNO, Odds: 15-1

Will the Coen Bros. make history? Perhaps. Anderson will be the closest to an upset, but ‘Blood’ has yet to register to the masses. Gilroy also did an amazing job directing ‘Clayton’ and he should view this nod as a vote of confidence he’ll return to this race in the future. Same with Reitman. As for Schnabel, it’ll be tough considering no director has won without his film nominated for Best Picture since 1929, not to mention the film barely gained traction at the box office. Therefore, the Coens will make history as the first directing duo to ever win.

BEST PICTURE

• No Country for Old Men, Odds: EVEN

• There Will Be Blood, Odds: 2-1

• Juno, Odds: 7-2

• Michael Clayton, Odds: 10-1

• Atonement, Odds: 30-1

Those dying to escape from all the dark entries will easily boost ‘Juno’s’ chances. But like ‘Little Miss Sunshine’ last year, it won’t be enough. Those starved for suspense will help ‘Michael Clayton’ get a good handful or two of votes, but it’s more of just an ensemble film. And sorry, but would any voters actually vote for ‘Atonement’? That leaves two vying champs. ‘There Will Be Blood’ was an epic, searing, and honest film, and it’s tied for the most nods. But, it’s ‘No Country for Old Men’ that will glide past the competition. Hailed as the Coens’ best film and winning more than 20 critics’ prizes, a SAG, and so on, there’s no doubting its assured victory.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

• Diablo Cody, JUNO, Odds: 7-5

• Tony Gilroy, MICHAEL CLAYTON, Odds: 2-1

• Brad Bird, Jan Pinkava, & Jim Capobianco, RATATOUILLE, Odds: 5-1

• Tamara Jenkins, THE SAVAGES, Odds: 9-1

• Nancy Oliver, LARS AND THE REAL GIRL, Odds: 25-1

Perhaps Gilroy’s biggest shot at a victory. His smart, edgy, and cutting drama will easily earn the votes of older voters. ‘Ratatouille’ was considered Pixar’s best and most charming, but when has an animated film ever won this category? Never. ‘Savages’ was also heartrending and funny, but there’s little support for the film. And with only one nod for ‘Lars,’ Oliver will just have to wait. Therefore, give it to Cody’s witty and touching script for ‘Juno.’

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

• Joel & Ethan Coen, NO COUNTRY FOR OLD MEN, Odds: 3-2

• Paul Thomas Anderson, THERE WILL BE BLOOD, Odds: 5-2

• Ronald Harwood, THE DIVING BELL & THE BUTTERFLY, Odds: 6-1

• Sarah Polley, AWAY FROM HER, Odds: 10-1

• Christopher Hampton, ATONEMENT, Odds: 20-1

Another win for the Coens or will the wealth be spread? Considering the amazing sweep of prizes for the film (plus a WGA Award), it’s hard to believe they won’t come up victorious here. Anderson will be the closest to an upset after two previous nods and no wins (for ‘Boogie Nights’ and ‘Magnolia’), so discount an upset from him. Harwood is a decent bet for ‘Butterfly,’ but the competition is too stiff. Polley also garnered a surprise nod indicating stronger support for the film than one expected, but the film was barely seen. And Hampton will just be happy he got this far.

Watch the “80th Annual Academy Awards” February 24 on ABC 8ET/5PT, and see how Matt measures up with his predictions!